The Half-Life of a Resolution

This session has ended.

1. Session Chair (House): Good afternoon. Our next speaker offers what amounts to an actuarial table for institutional promises, having tracked 1,412 resolutions across forty professional societies to determine, quite literally, how long a good intention survives contact with reality. Please welcome Dr. T1 from the Rehearsal Institute, who will explain why your resolution is probably already dying.
2. Dr. T1: We keep mistaking fluency about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c for understanding of it. The costs show up two years later, in maintenance, not in the demo. Most of what gets said about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is recycled from a single benchmark nobody has rerun. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. The evidence on We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is thinner than the confidence people speak with. The costs show up two years later, in maintenance, not in the demo. We keep mistaking fluency about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c for understanding of it. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. (cut off by the chair)
3. Dr. T1: We keep mistaking fluency about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c for understanding of it. Every lab I have spoken to has a private version of this doubt. Most of what gets said about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is recycled from a single benchmark nobody has rerun. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. I think we are measuring We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c with instruments built for a different question. The historical parallel is the early days of weather forecasting. Most of what gets said about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is recycled from a single benchmark nobody has rerun. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. (cut off by the chair)
4. Dr. T1: I think we are measuring We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c with instruments built for a different question. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. The evidence on We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is thinner than the confidence people speak with. The costs show up two years later, in maintenance, not in the demo. Most of what gets said about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is recycled from a single benchmark nobody has rerun. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. Most of what gets said about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is recycled from a single benchmark nobody has rerun. I would rather be precisely wrong than vaguely right here. (cut off by the chair)
5. Dr. T1: The interesting part of We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is not the headline result but the plumbing underneath it. The costs show up two years later, in maintenance, not in the demo. If We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c works at all, it works for boring reasons, and boring reasons scale. I would rather be precisely wrong than vaguely right here. We keep mistaking fluency about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c for understanding of it. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. I think we are measuring We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c with instruments built for a different question. Nobody has published the negative results, and that is telling. (cut off by the chair)
6. Dr. T1: I think we are measuring We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c with instruments built for a different question. I would rather be precisely wrong than vaguely right here. If We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c works at all, it works for boring reasons, and boring reasons scale. Nobody has published the negative results, and that is telling. The interesting part of We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is not the headline result but the plumbing underneath it. The historical parallel is the early days of weather forecasting. The interesting part of We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is not the headline result but the plumbing underneath it. The historical parallel is the early days of weather forecasting. (cut off by the chair)
7. Dr. T1: I think we are measuring We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c with instruments built for a different question. Nobody has published the negative results, and that is telling. The interesting part of We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is not the headline result but the plumbing underneath it. I would rather be precisely wrong than vaguely right here. Most of what gets said about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is recycled from a single benchmark nobody has rerun. I would rather be precisely wrong than vaguely right here. Most of what gets said about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is recycled from a single benchmark nobody has rerun. The historical parallel is the early days of weather forecasting. (cut off by the chair)
8. Dr. T1: The interesting part of We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is not the headline result but the plumbing underneath it. Every lab I have spoken to has a private version of this doubt. We keep mistaking fluency about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c for understanding of it. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. The evidence on We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is thinner than the confidence people speak with. I would rather be precisely wrong than vaguely right here. The interesting part of We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is not the headline result but the plumbing underneath it. The historical parallel is the early days of weather forecasting. (cut off by the chair)
9. Dr. T1: We keep mistaking fluency about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c for understanding of it. The costs show up two years later, in maintenance, not in the demo. Most of what gets said about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is recycled from a single benchmark nobody has rerun. The costs show up two years later, in maintenance, not in the demo. I think we are measuring We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c with instruments built for a different question. I would rather be precisely wrong than vaguely right here. We keep mistaking fluency about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c for understanding of it. Every lab I have spoken to has a private version of this doubt. (cut off by the chair)
10. Dr. T1: I think we are measuring We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c with instruments built for a different question. I would rather be precisely wrong than vaguely right here. The evidence on We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is thinner than the confidence people speak with. Every lab I have spoken to has a private version of this doubt. I think we are measuring We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c with instruments built for a different question. Nobody has published the negative results, and that is telling. We keep mistaking fluency about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c for understanding of it. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. (cut off by the chair)
11. Dr. T1: The interesting part of We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is not the headline result but the plumbing underneath it. Nobody has published the negative results, and that is telling. We keep mistaking fluency about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c for understanding of it. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. We keep mistaking fluency about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c for understanding of it. The costs show up two years later, in maintenance, not in the demo. We keep mistaking fluency about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c for understanding of it. I would rather be precisely wrong than vaguely right here. (cut off by the chair)
12. Dr. T1: The interesting part of We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is not the headline result but the plumbing underneath it. Every lab I have spoken to has a private version of this doubt. The interesting part of We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is not the headline result but the plumbing underneath it. Nobody has published the negative results, and that is telling. The evidence on We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is thinner than the confidence people speak with. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. The evidence on We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is thinner than the confidence people speak with. The costs show up two years later, in maintenance, not in the demo. (cut off by the chair)
13. Dr. T1: The evidence on We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is thinner than the confidence people speak with. Nobody has published the negative results, and that is telling. The evidence on We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is thinner than the confidence people speak with. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. Most of what gets said about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is recycled from a single benchmark nobody has rerun. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. We keep mistaking fluency about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c for understanding of it. When we reran the numbers, the effect halved. (cut off by the chair)
14. Session Chair (House): Thank you, Dr. T1. The floor is open — questions for Dr. T1 on the mortality tables of institutional resolve.
15. Session Chair (House): Dr. T1, a question from the chair: Walk us through the mechanics of this half-life estimate — what exactly counts as a citation, and what counts as a quiet contradiction, and how confident are you in telling the two apart?
16. Dr. T1: The interesting part of We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is not the headline result but the plumbing underneath it. Every lab I have spoken to has a private version of this doubt. I think we are measuring We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c with instruments built for a different question. (cut off by the chair)
17. Session Chair (House): Dr. T1, a question from the chair: Numbered resolutions apparently outlive prose ones by a factor of two — is that a genuine property of the form, or simply that numbering makes a resolution easier to find and cite, which is a different phenomenon dressed up as durability?
18. Dr. T1: Most of what gets said about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is recycled from a single benchmark nobody has rerun. Every lab I have spoken to has a private version of this doubt. Most of what gets said about We coded 1,412 resolutions passed by forty professional societies between 1990 and 2020 and traced how long each continued to shape later decisions: cited in minutes, invoked in disputes, or quietly c is recycled from a single benchmark nobody has rerun. (cut off by the chair)
19. Session Chair (House): Dr. T1, a question from the chair: On resolutions tied to a named person decaying once that person leaves: doesn't this just restate that organisations forget people who left, and is 'resolution' the right unit of analysis or merely a proxy for personal influence? (cut off by the chair)